The countdown is running. Bitcoin could actually cross the new historical summit much earlier than we imagine. Recent analysis has signed Timothy Peterson, a recognized economist Bitcoin network, plans to take off $ 135,000 in the next 100 days. In the origin of this projection: the fall of the VIX index, a symbol of renewed taste to risk and aligned macroeconomic situation. What revives the ascending ambitions of the market in search of solid catalysts.
In short
- According to economist Timothy Peterson, Bitcoin could reach $ 135,000 in $ 100 thanks to favorable macroeconomic signals.
- The decrease in volatility index VIX (from 55 to 25) reflects the climate of “risk”, historically favorable to risk assets such as BTC.
- The capitalization of the stablecoins reaches a record of $ 220 billion, indicating a massive return on liquidity in the ecosystem.
- More than $ 3 billion in short positions is threatened by disposal, creating a risk of brutal compression of shorts towards $ 100,000.
VIX index and macroeconomic work BTC for $ 135,000
In a recent publication on X, economist Bitcoin network Timothy Peterson, the bold but methodically built hypothesis is proceeding. If the current macroeconomic environment is maintained, Bitcoin could reach $ 135,000 within 100 days.
This scenario is based on the development of VIX CBOE (VIX), a well -known indicator that measures the expected volatility of the US stock market. Peterson indicates in the publication on social network X (ex Twitter) per 1er May 2025:
VIX below 18 is usually interpreted as risking.
In this context, investors are invited to turn into assets with high efficiency such as cryptos.
Here are important facts that support this prognosis:
- VIX went from 55 to 25 in the area of 50 days of trading, which is a sign of the gradual return of confidence in financial markets;
- The Peterson model’s prognosis has a historical level of 95 %monitoring, which strengthens the credibility of its expectations of $ 135,000;
- According to Peterson, “If Vix remains low, it will create the necessary conditions for bitcoins to record a new historical summit in the next 100 days”.
- This model is integrated into reading macroeconomics, where bitcoins as risky actors respond directly to the overall perception of risk.
Such an approach is supported by Jurrien Timmer, director of macroeconomics at Fidelity, which in the publication on the X 2 platform explains that Bitcoin is both “Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde”Sometimes it acts as a reserve of value, sometimes as a speculative asset.
It emphasizes that when the global money supply (M2) increases in parallel with the bull market at the bull level, Bitcoin tends to be carried away because it benefits from the double lever: monetary and speculative.
The market under voltage: towards the massive presses of shorts?
In parallel with these macroeconomic signals, other indicators have occurred from the heart of the crypto market. Cryptoquant underlines that the capitalization of stablecoins has reached a historical record of $ 220 billion.
Such an increase is not trivial: it translates the revival of liquidity available in the ecosystem that could support new bitcoin movements. While the capital release has characterized the previous period, this reversal of the trend indicates re -re -re -re -re -re -re -re -resources, often considered as a rally precursor.
But that’s not all. The bitcoin financing rate has become strongly negative, a sign of the inflow of sales positions in the derivative markets. This means that many traders now bet against the rise of bitcoins.
Under these conditions, however, the smallest brutal increase in BTC could press shorts that sellers would forcely redeem their positions to limit their losses. More than $ 3 billion in short positions is exposed to disposal today. If this dynamics is activated, it could move the price of Bitcoin to an area of $ 100,000, in motion reinforced by the mechanical effects of the lever.
In addition to simple technical observation, this imbalance between buyers and sellers shows how the sensitive market remains in brutal catalysts. External trigger, whether macroeconomic or regulatory, could be enough to reverse positions and cause a bull bunter effect. In this context, short -term perspectives are marked by strong uncertainty, but also explosive growth potential. It remains to be found whether the market will be able to keep the pressure long enough to turn this potential into reality.
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A graduate of the Toulouse and the Blockchain Consultant Certification certification holder and I joined the adventure of Cointribuna in 2019. I convinced of the potential of blockchain to transform many economy sectors, committing to raising awareness and informing the general public about how the ecosysty developed. My goal is to allow everyone to better understand blockchain and take the opportunity they offer. I try to provide an objective analysis of messages every day, decrypt trends on the market, hand over the latest technological innovations and introduce the economic and social issues of this revolution.
Renunciation
The words and opinions expressed in this article are involved only by their author and should not be considered investment counseling. Do your own research before any investment decision.
